Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
